The Roundup – June 2026
Oil Prices Ease
Oil prices spiked off the back of exchanged blows between Washington and Tehran, however June generally saw prices ease, following disharmony within the OPEC group (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), as Iraq, a founding member and the group’s second largest producer, mulled the idea of exiting the body.
The war in Iran, and the effective closure of the region’s main trade route, has seen one of Iraq’s primary sources of income (oil exports) dry up, pushing the middle eastern nation into a financial crisis. The freedom for Bagdad to dictate their own oil output quantities (and thus revenue flows) would alleviate some of the financial pressures facing the country.
However, the move is seen as a last resort, albeit one that would deal a big blow to the organisation, particularly given the abandonment of the group by the UAE in April 2026, for similar reasons. Instead, Iraq have voiced to the organisation, the need for their output quota to be increased in line with “production capacity and population”.
At the same time, OPEC+ (OPEC members and other external producers such as Russia) are reviewing members’ production capacity, a process that will form the basis of the 2027 quotas. While there have been some increases to production levels recently, damage to energy infrastructure from the conflict has seen countries struggle to meet the new figures.
Lower oil prices are positive for the global economy. From a business perspective they reduce operating costs and help to lift profit margins, particularly in energy sensitive industries such as transportation, logistics and manufacturing. Cheaper fuel also benefits consumers by freeing up income to be spent elsewhere, supporting economic growth.
More broadly, as energy costs touch almost every part of the supply chain, lower fuel prices, especially in oil-importing countries, help to suppress inflationary pressures. This trend was illustrated in the latest US inflation data, having risen 1.8% from the start of the year to reach 4.2% in May, inflation fell 0.7% in June, with energy prices the largest driver of the fall.
Artificial Intelligence Reaches Outer Space
The first half of the year has seen an Artificial Intelligence boom, with trillions being poured into the technology. AI infrastructure spending is estimated to reach $1.3 trillion by the end of the year as businesses invest in chips, data centers and power grids, while worldwide AI spending (infrastructure, services and software) is forecast to total $2.5 trillion.
Against this backdrop June saw an historic IPO (initial public offering) come to market. SpaceX took the opportunity to raise capital by shifting from a private to publicly listed company, taking advantage of investors’ strong appetite for businesses associated with the AI thematic, enticed by its ‘artificial intelligence operations’ business segment.
SpaceX raised around US$85.7 billion during its debut, making it the largest IPO on record. And while its Starlink satellite internet business segment is profitable ($4.4 billion operating income in 2025) overall SpaceX reported a net loss of around $4.9 billion for the year after incorporating the AI segment, and a further loss in Q1 2026 as AI investment accelerated.
Significant levels of AI investment by big tech companies have buoyed markets in the US and elsewhere, and analysts have attributed such spending as the primary driver of US economic growth, however evidence of the specific return on AI investment is light, with the value from AI difficult to link directly to changes in companies’ financial metrics.